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China Steel Association: Steel prices will show low volatility in the late period

In April, with the warming of the weather, the domestic steel market entered the peak season for demand, social inventories continued to decline, steel exports increased significantly, and steel prices showed a slight upward trend. However, due to the relatively rapid release of steel production capacity, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market has not changed. It is expected that the price of steel in the latter period will be difficult to increase substantially and will show low volatility.

 
Steel prices in the domestic market rose

 
At the end of April, the CSPI steel comprehensive price index of the China Iron and Steel Association was 95.97 points, an increase of 1.14 points or a rise of 1.20% from the previous quarter. It was the first rise after falling for seven consecutive months, a decrease of 9.78 points or a decrease of 9.25% from the same period of 2013.

 
Longer material prices increase more than plate

 
At the end of April, the CSPI long product price index was 98.19 points, an increase of 1.44 points or 1.49% from the previous period, and the plate price index was 96.23 points, an increase of 0.97 points or an increase of 1.02%. The growth of long products prices was 0.47 percentage points higher than that of plates, which was a 9.65 point or 8.95% decrease from the long products price index in the same period of 2013. The plate index decreased by 9.35 points, a decrease of 8.86%.

 
The price of major steel products rises and falls

 
At the end of April, among the 8 major steel products monitored by the China Iron and Steel Association, the price of long products and the price of hot-rolled plates rose from a downward trend; the price drop of cold-rolled steel sheets increased compared with that in March; the prices of galvanized steel sheets and hot-rolled steel were not increased. Sewage pipe prices continued to decline, and the decline was narrower than in March. Among them, high-line prices, rebar prices, and angle steel prices increased by RMB 82/ton, RMB 59/ton, and RMB 11/ton, respectively, while plate prices and hot-rolled coil prices increased by RMB 54/ton and RMB 62 respectively. / Tons, cold-rolled sheet prices, galvanized sheet prices, and seamless steel tube prices fell by RMB 59/t, RMB 15/t, and RMB 15/t respectively.

 
Steel prices show low volatility

 
From each week's situation, the CSPI steel price index showed a continuous upward trend in the first 3 weeks of April, but it reappeared a slight downward trend in the 4th week. As of the second week of May, it has dropped slightly for three consecutive weeks.

 
Steel prices rebounded in the domestic market

 
In April, the domestic steel market entered a peak demand season and steel prices rebounded. However, due to the fact that steel production still maintains a high level, and market demand growth has been slow, the situation of oversupply has not changed, and steel prices have fluctuated at low levels.

 
With the slowdown in the growth of the steel industry, the steel market is not in demand

 
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 17.3% over the same period of 2013, with the growth rate falling 0.3% from January to March and falling 3.3% over the same period of 2013. Percentage point; National real estate development investment increased by 16.4% over the same period of 2013. The growth rate decreased by 0.4% from January to March, and decreased by 4.7% from the growth rate in the same period of 2013. The area of new housing starts decreased by 22.1% from the same period of 2013. The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 7.9% compared with the same period in 2013. In April, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.7% over the same period of 2013, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in March, and 0.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the same period of 2013; the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) was 50.4%, a slight increase from the previous month. 0.1 percentage point, 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period of 2013, among which the new orders index fell by 0.5 percentage points from the same period in 2013; PPI decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous period, 2.0% from the same period of 2013, and the negative growth for 26 consecutive months; RMB loans increased by 7747 Billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 275.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6 billion yuan over the same period in 2013; the average daily loading capacity of railways nationwide was 155,300 vehicles, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.9% from the same period of 2013. Looking at the overall situation, China’s economy continued to experience downward pressure in April, and the demand for steel products grew slowly.

 
The release of steel production capacity is fast, and there is no change in the market supply and demand

 
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel (including repetitive materials) nationwide was 60.18 million tons, 68.84 million tons and 92.5 million tons respectively in April, an increase of -0.8%, 2.1% and 5.4 respectively over the same period of 2013. %. The average daily output of 2,294,700 tons of crude steel, to refresh the single-month history of crude steel production, the chain rose by 28,600 tons, an increase of 1.3%. According to customs statistics, in April, the country exported 7.54 million tons of steel, an increase of 780,000 tons, an increase of 11.5%; imported steel 1.3 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, an increase of 4.0%; net exports of steel 62.4 million tons, equivalent to crude steel 6.64 million tons, an increase of 780,000 tons, an increase of 13.3%. Based on the above data, the daily average supply of crude steel in the domestic market in April was 2.073 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.18% from the previous quarter and an increase of 1.72% from the same period in 2013.

 
The price of raw materials has stopped falling and rises, supporting steel prices

 
In April, the prices of raw materials for steel production rebounded. Among them, the prices of domestic refined iron fines rose by RMB 8/ton over the three months after the continuous decrease, which was an increase of 0.90%; the price of imported iron ore decreased by RMB 10/ton over the fifth consecutive month. 1.28%; scrap prices dropped by RMB 13/t or 0.56% qoq after consecutive declines in the 7th month; coking coal and metallurgical coke prices continued to decline, but the monthly decline rate was 6.80 ppts lower than in March and 7.00 respectively. Percentage.

 
Steel prices in the international market rise from lower to higher

 
At the end of April, CRU International's comprehensive steel price index stood at 166.7 points, an increase of 1.9 points or 1.2% from the previous quarter. It was the first rise after three consecutive months of decline; it was down 8.3 points, or 4.7%, from the same period in 2013.

 
The price of long products has risen from a downward trend, and the increase in sheet prices has increased.

 
At the end of April, the CRU long product price index was 180.0 points, up by 1.5 points or 0.8% month-on-month. The board price index was 161.1 points, which was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4%, which was 1.0 percentage point higher than that in March. Compared with the same period of last year, the long products index decreased by 14.5 points, a decrease of 7.5%; sheet metal index decreased by 4.2 points, a decrease of 2.5%.

 
North American Steel Price Continues to Rise, Steel Prices in Europe and Asia Retreat

 
North American market. At the end of April, the CRU North American steel price index was 182.0 points, an increase of 4.8 points or an increase of 2.7% from the previous quarter, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from March. In April, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 54.9%, which was a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The new order index was 55.1%, which was the same as in March; the auto industry sales reached 1.39 million units, an increase of 8% over the same period of 2013. At the end of April, the US crude steel capacity utilization rate was 76.3%, which was 0.4% lower than the same period in 2013. In April, the price of long products in the US market continued to decline, the prices of medium and heavy plates fell from high to low, and the prices of thin steel products increased from low to high.

 
European market. At the end of April, the CRU European steel price index was 156.6 points, up 0.9 points month-on-month, or an increase of 0.6%. In April, the eurozone manufacturing PMI index was 53.4%, up 0.4% from the previous quarter. However, among the major European countries, the manufacturing PMIs of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom were 53.7%, 51.2%, and 55.3%, respectively. Although they remained in the expansion zone, they fell by 1.1 percentage points, 0.9 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points respectively. In April, the price of long products in the UK market remained stable, while the prices of flat products declined.

 
Asia market. At the end of April, the CRU Asian steel price index was 166.1 points, an increase of 1.8 points or 1.1% from the previous quarter. In April, Japan’s manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous quarter, of which the new export order index fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and was the first decline in eight months; the Korean manufacturing PMI was 50.2%. It was down 0.2% MoM, of which the new export order sub-index fell to 49.9%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous quarter and was the first contraction in 7 months. In April, the price of long products in the Far East market continued to decline, the decline in plate prices narrowed, and the prices of hot-rolled steel sheets increased from low to high. The prices of cold-rolled coils and hot dip galvanized products remained stable.

 
Late low steel price fluctuations

 
The second quarter is the peak season for steel consumption, and demand will increase, but the increase will not be too great. Affected by the overcapacity of steel, the output of steel is unlikely to fall sharply. It is difficult to reverse the situation of oversupply, and it is still difficult for steel prices to rebound sharply in the future, and will continue to show low volatility.

 
The national economy maintains stable and rapid development, and steel demand continues to grow

 
Since the beginning of this year, China’s macroeconomic situation has basically remained stable, but it still faces downward pressure. The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in its May 6th Spring Economic Outlook Report predicted that the global economy will continue its modest recovery this year, but the recovery will be lower than previously expected. The global economy is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2014, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than the November 2013 forecast. Among them, China's economic growth rate is expected to be 7.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the November 2013 forecast. The "Analysis of China's Economic Prospects (Spring Report 2014)" published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on April 29 also predicts that China's economic growth will be about 7.4% in 2014, and the growth rate will be slightly lower than that in 2013. From the overall situation, China's economic growth showed a slight downward trend, but it is still a relatively rapid growth. Compared with developed countries, China's infrastructure is still relatively backward, and urbanization still has a lot of room for development. In the later period, with the successive development of 7 million sets of affordable housing construction, 800 billion yuan of railway investment construction and urban infrastructure construction, steel demand is expected to continue to grow.

 
The state has stepped up the elimination of backward production capacity, and the oversupply situation in the steel industry is expected to ease

 
Affected by the high level of iron and steel production and slow demand growth, the oversupply situation in the domestic steel market is even more pronounced. The price of steel products continues to fluctuate at a low level. The dependence on imported iron ore continues to increase, the difficulty in reducing costs increases, and the profitability of enterprises is low. The capital chain is tight and the ability to continue operations is further weakened. In order to fulfill the task of eliminating backward production capacity in 2014 as determined by the “Government Work Report,” the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in accordance with the “Notice of the State Council on Further Strengthening the Elimination of Backward Production Capacity” and the State Council’s Guidance on Resolving the Contradiction of Serious Overcapacity on May 8. Opinions deployed and issued the task of eliminating backward and surplus production capacity in 2014. It is clear that the iron and steel industry eliminated 40.7 million tons of backward production capacity, including 19 million tons of iron and 28.7 million tons of steel. The new version of the "Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China (Revised Draft)" was approved by the Eighth Meeting of the Twelfth National People's Congress and will be implemented on January 1 next year. Its emission standards and penalties will impose restrictions on steel production. It will help resolve the excess capacity of the steel industry and ease the pressure on the market.

 
Social stocks continue to fall, and steel pressure has eased in the late period

 
As of May 9, the five major steel stocks in major markets across the country fell to 16.02 million tons, a decrease of 690,000 tons from the end of April, a decrease of 4.12% from the previous period, and a decrease of 3.7 million tons from the same period of 2013. 18.75%. Since the end of February this year, the social inventory of steel has dropped for 10 consecutive weeks. Compared with the peak value at the end of February, the stock level on May 9 has decreased by 4.84 million tons, a drop of 23.20%. Steel stocks continued to fall, and the pressure on steel prices in the later period was reduced.

 
Three issues that need attention in the later market

 
First, the average daily output of crude steel hit a record high. In April, the country’s daily output of crude steel reached 2,229,700 tons, a record high. Under the situation of slow demand growth, steel production has maintained a high level, which has further aggravated the contradiction between oversupply and demand in the steel market.

 
Second, the price of imported iron ore rose more than steel prices. At the end of April, CSPI China's steel price index was 95.97 points, which was a 1.20% increase from the end of March. In April, the average price of imported iron ore from the CIOPI (Chinese iron ore price index) was US$113.45/ton, which was US$3.44/ton or 3.13% higher than March, which was 1.93 percentage points higher than the increase in steel price.

 
The third is that steel exports have been trading at price changes and prices have fallen. In the first four months of this year, 257,000 tons of steel were exported nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, setting a record high. However, the average price of steel exports was only 795.07 US dollars / ton, down 8.08% over the same period in 2013, is the lowest level since 2011.

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